← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Roger East, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves win | 40% | 31% | 2.46 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 31% | 26% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 44% | 3.29 | value: +44% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Adam Smith · Bournemouth |
| 14' | ⚽ (pen) | Joshua King · Bournemouth |
| 21' | 🟨 | Diogo Jota · Wolves |
| 42' | 🟨 | Leander Dendoncker · Wolves |
| 57' | 🟨 | Ryan Bennett · Wolves |
| 70' | 🟨 | Jefferson Lerma · Bournemouth |
| 77' | 🟨 | Raúl Jiménez · Wolves |
| 83' | ⚽ (pen) | Raúl Jiménez · Wolves |
| 85' | 🟨 | Rúben Neves · Wolves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Artur Boruc · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dan Gosling · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 2336.00 | 663.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 3.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1543.72 | 1514.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.55 | 47.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| league points | 33.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | -0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.29 | 26.79 |
| state index | 0.12 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 207.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |