← Premier League 2018-19 · Fri, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Simon Hooper, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 40% | 29% | 2.47 | fair |
| Cardiff win | 31% | 52% | 3.15 | value: +64% ⚠ |
| Draw | 29% | 19% | 3.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Gerard Deulofeu · Watford |
| 30' | 🟨 | Étienne Capoue · Watford |
| 55' | 🟨 | Roberto Pereyra · Watford |
| 61' | ⚽ | Gerard Deulofeu · Watford |
| 63' | ⚽ | Gerard Deulofeu · Watford |
| 73' | ⚽ | Troy Deeney · Watford |
| 82' | ⚽ | Sol Bamba · Cardiff |
| 85' | 🟨 | Callum Paterson · Cardiff |
| 90' | ⚽ | Troy Deeney · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.13 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days | 874.00 | 417.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 2.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1427.16 | 1548.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.89 | 15.86 |
| eye test v1 | -1.14 | -1.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.54 | -0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.00 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.79 |
| league points | 25.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.00 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.53 | -0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 28.76 | 29.58 |
| state index | -0.19 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.98 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 194.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |