← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 53% | 55% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.46 | fair |
| Cardiff win | 19% | 21% | 5.08 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | James Ward-Prowse · Southampton |
| 61' | 🟨 | Aron Gunnarsson · Cardiff |
| 69' | ⚽ | Sol Bamba · Cardiff |
| 70' | 🟨 | Sol Bamba · Cardiff |
| 89' | 🟨 | Nathan Redmond · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oriol Romeu · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kenneth Zohore · Cardiff |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jack Stephens · Southampton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kenneth Zohore · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 70.00 | 861.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1517.47 | 1412.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.59 | 1.17 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | -1.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.90 | 65.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| league points | 24.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 65.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 33.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.62 | -2.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 25.45 | 28.49 |
| state index | 0.12 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.94 | -1.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 141.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |