← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 83% | 84% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 12% | 8.75 | value: +8% |
| Bournemouth win | 6% | 4% | 16.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Sadio Mané · Liverpool |
| 25' | 🟨 | Diego Rico · Bournemouth |
| 34' | ⚽ | Georginio Wijnaldum · Liverpool |
| 38' | 🟨 | Adam Smith · Bournemouth |
| 48' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 61' | 🟨 | Joël Matip · Liverpool |
| 87' | 🟨 | Andy Robertson · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 12 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 688.00 | 2322.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1855.24 | 1547.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.79 | 8.35 |
| eye test v1 | 0.58 | 0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.20 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.75 |
| league points | 62.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 2.48 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.95 | -0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 27.17 | 26.62 |
| state index | 0.92 | -0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.87 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 309.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |