← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 58% | 61% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 16% | 3.99 | fair |
| Huddersfield win | 17% | 23% | 5.65 | value: +29% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Alex Iwobi · Arsenal |
| 36' | 🟨 | Christopher Schindler · Huddersfield |
| 44' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Arsenal |
| 49' | 🟨 | Terence Kongolo · Huddersfield |
| 55' | 🟨 | Ainsley Maitland-Niles · Arsenal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adama Diakhaby · Huddersfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sead Kolašinac · Arsenal |
| 90' | ⚽ | Karlan Grant · Huddersfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huddersfield | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | John Smith's Stadium |
| coach days | 39.00 | 284.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1382.74 | 1750.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.81 | -3.15 |
| eye test v1 | -1.21 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.64 |
| league points | 11.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.44 | 1.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.64 | 0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.00 | 27.36 |
| state index | -1.51 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 258.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |