← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paul Tierney, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 56% | 65% | 1.74 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.98 | fair |
| Fulham win | 19% | 14% | 5.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Paul Pogba · Man United |
| 23' | ⚽ | Anthony Martial · Man United |
| 25' | 🟨 | Joe Bryan · Fulham |
| 38' | 🟨 | Calum Chambers · Fulham |
| 43' | 🟨 | Nemanja Matić · Man United |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | Paul Pogba · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Mitrović · Fulham |
| 90' | 🟨 | David De Gea · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 8.00 | 70.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.05 | 3.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1663.01 | 1966.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.71 | 23.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | 1.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.10 | 64.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.80 |
| league points | 17.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.68 | 1.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | 1.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 7.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 27.28 | 27.00 |
| state index | -0.01 | 1.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 261.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |