← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Stuart Attwell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 48% | 40% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 35% | 3.34 | value: +18% |
| Burnley win | 23% | 25% | 4.29 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Chris Wood · Burnley |
| 61' | ⚽ | Chris Wood · Burnley |
| 72' | 🟨 | Mathew Ryan · Brighton |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 76' | 🟨 | Ashley Westwood · Burnley |
| 76' | ⚽ | Shane Duffy · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | American Express Community Stadium |
| coach days | 1531.00 | 2322.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1499.05 | 1514.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.09 | 23.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.80 | — |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.77 |
| league points | 27.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | -1.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.31 | 28.30 |
| state index | -0.57 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.84 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 356.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |