← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 47% | 43% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 35% | 3.45 | value: +20% |
| Fulham win | 24% | 22% | 4.03 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Jordan Ayew · Crystal Palace |
| 25' | ⚽ (pen) | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
| 27' | 🟨 | Maxime Le Marchand · Fulham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Denis Odoi · Fulham |
| 59' | 🟨 | Ryan Babel · Fulham |
| 76' | 🟨 | Aaron Wan-Bissaka · Crystal Palace |
| 87' | ⚽ | Jeffrey Schlupp · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 519.00 | 1.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.69 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1530.81 | 1401.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.14 | 16.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.70 | 51.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.64 |
| league points | 23.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.73 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 28.12 | 27.26 |
| state index | -0.17 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.79 | -0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 12.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |