← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 38% | 43% | 2.59 | value: +13% |
| Southampton win | 33% | 33% | 2.95 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 23% | 3.36 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 35' | 🟨 | Phil Bardsley · Burnley |
| 55' | ⚽ | Nathan Redmond · Southampton |
| 84' | 🟨 | Ben Mee · Burnley |
| 89' | 🟨 | Matt Targett · Southampton |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 2315.00 | 63.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1515.74 | 1515.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.74 | 27.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 72.30 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.64 |
| league points | 23.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 35.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.34 | -1.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.14 | 24.96 |
| state index | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.09 | -1.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 325.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |