← Premier League 2018-19 · Wed, Jan 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Roger East, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 59% | 56% | 1.64 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.15 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 17% | 23% | 5.71 | value: +29% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 47' | ⚽ | Joshua King · Bournemouth |
| 63' | ⚽ | David Brooks · Bournemouth |
| 72' | 🟨 | Andrew Surman · Bournemouth |
| 74' | ⚽ | Joshua King · Bournemouth |
| 90' | ⚽ | Charlie Daniels · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 2312.00 | 213.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1540.58 | 1757.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.64 | -7.93 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.84 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| league points | 30.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 86.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 66.40 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 2.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | 2.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.93 | 27.20 |
| state index | -0.19 | 0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | 1.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 141.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |