← Premier League 2018-19 · Tue, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Stuart Attwell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 43% | 41% | 2.27 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 18% | 3.21 | fair |
| Huddersfield win | 26% | 41% | 3.72 | value: +53% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Richarlison · Everton |
| 31' | 🟨 | Bernard · Everton |
| 43' | 🟨 | Cenk Tosun · Everton |
| 65' | 🟨 | Jason Puncheon · Huddersfield |
| 66' | 🟥 | Lucas Digne · Everton |
| 87' | 🟨 | André Gomes · Everton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huddersfield | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | John Smith's Stadium |
| coach days | 28.00 | 273.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1392.99 | 1572.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.46 | -4.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.92 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| league points | 11.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.48 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.80 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.12 | 25.93 |
| state index | -1.26 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 82.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |