← Premier League 2018-19 · Tue, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Probert, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 39% | 49% | 2.50 | value: +23% |
| Brighton win | 31% | 22% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Glenn Murray · Brighton |
| 17' | ⚽ | Glenn Murray · Brighton |
| 26' | 🟨 | Dale Stephens · Brighton |
| 36' | 🟨 | Jean Michaël Seri · Fulham |
| 36' | 🟨 | Shane Duffy · Brighton |
| 47' | ⚽ | Calum Chambers · Fulham |
| 58' | ⚽ | Aleksandar Mitrović · Fulham |
| 74' | ⚽ | Aleksandar Mitrović · Fulham |
| 75' | 🟨 | Lewis Dunk · Brighton |
| 79' | ⚽ | Luciano Vietto · Fulham |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ryan Babel · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 24 | Shots | 15 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 89.00 | 1520.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 1.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1382.99 | 1517.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.22 | 12.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | -0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 65.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.74 |
| league points | 14.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 39.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.61 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.01 | -1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.09 | 28.20 |
| state index | -0.64 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.27 | -0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 68.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |