← Premier League 2018-19 · Tue, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 79% | 87% | 1.22 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 14% | 9% | 6.98 | fair |
| Cardiff win | 7% | 4% | 13.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Nacho Monreal · Arsenal |
| 36' | 🟨 | Callum Paterson · Cardiff |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mattéo Guendouzi · Arsenal |
| 63' | 🟨 | Harry Arter · Cardiff |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Arsenal |
| 81' | 🟨 | Alexandre Lacazette · Arsenal |
| 83' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Arsenal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Ralls · Cardiff |
| 90' | ⚽ | Nathaniel Mendez-Laing · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 273.00 | 850.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.30 |
| elo | 1755.98 | 1394.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.33 | 4.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | -1.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | -0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.20 | 64.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| league points | 44.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 37.40 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -10.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.92 | -1.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 25.75 | 28.34 |
| state index | 0.76 | -0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | -0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 214.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |