← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 86% | 78% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 12% | 9.86 | value: +19% |
| Huddersfield win | 4% | 10% | 24.77 | value: +147% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Danilo · Man City |
| 27' | 🟨 | Kyle Walker · Man City |
| 30' | 🟨 | Juninho Bacuna · Huddersfield |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jonathan Hogg · Huddersfield |
| 50' | 🟨 | Fernandinho · Man City |
| 54' | ⚽ | Raheem Sterling · Man City |
| 56' | ⚽ | Leroy Sané · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huddersfield | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | John Smith's Stadium |
| coach days | 19.00 | 933.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 4.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1395.47 | 1902.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.28 | -21.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | 0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| league points | 11.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 87.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 69.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 2.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | 2.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.28 | 26.50 |
| state index | -1.18 | 1.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | 1.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 34.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |