← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Jan 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Chris Kavanagh, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves win | 42% | 36% | 2.35 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 43% | 3.23 | value: +40% |
| Leicester win | 28% | 20% | 3.53 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Nampalys Mendy · Leicester |
| 4' | ⚽ | Diogo Jota · Wolves |
| 12' | ⚽ | Ryan Bennett · Wolves |
| 44' | 🟨 | Ryan Bennett · Wolves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Diogo Jota · Wolves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ricardo Pereira · Leicester |
| 47' | ⚽ | Demarai Gray · Leicester |
| 51' | ⚽ (og) | Conor Coady · Leicester |
| 58' | 🟨 | Wilfred Ndidi · Leicester |
| 64' | ⚽ | Diogo Jota · Wolves |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jonny Otto · Wolves |
| 87' | ⚽ | Wes Morgan · Leicester |
| 90' | ⚽ | Diogo Jota · Wolves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days | 628.00 | 475.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1465.23 | 1570.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.16 | 15.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| league points | 29.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | -0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.29 | 26.21 |
| state index | -0.46 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.00 | -0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 66.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |