← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Jan 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 55% | 56% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.77 | value: +12% |
| Burnley win | 19% | 14% | 5.09 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 63' | 🟨 | Ben Mee · Burnley |
| 79' | 🟨 | Gerard Deulofeu · Watford |
| 82' | 🟨 | Phil Bardsley · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 383.00 | 2301.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 1.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1743.81 | 1685.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.93 | 14.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.10 | — |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.66 |
| league points | 32.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 0.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.20 | -0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 29.67 | 27.99 |
| state index | 0.66 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 267.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |