← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Jan 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paul Tierney, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 70% | 69% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 20% | 5.02 | fair |
| Brighton win | 10% | 11% | 9.59 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ (pen) | Paul Pogba · Man United |
| 42' | ⚽ | Marcus Rashford · Man United |
| 72' | ⚽ | Pascal Groß · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcus Rashford · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.54 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.59 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 49.00 | 1510.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 1.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1776.29 | 1520.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.76 | 3.95 |
| eye test v1 | 1.87 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 66.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.77 |
| league points | 41.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 38.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.55 | -1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.56 | 28.23 |
| state index | 1.46 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.96 | -1.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 326.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |