← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Jan 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 78% | 83% | 1.24 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 14% | 12% | 6.86 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 8% | 4% | 12.02 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ | Andros Townsend · Crystal Palace |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jordan Ayew · Crystal Palace |
| 46' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 53' | ⚽ | Roberto Firmino · Liverpool |
| 65' | ⚽ | James Tomkins · Crystal Palace |
| 75' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 82' | 🟨 | James Milner · Liverpool |
| 89' | 🟨 | James Milner · Liverpool |
| 89' | 🟥 | James Milner · Liverpool |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sadio Mané · Liverpool |
| 90' | ⚽ | Max Meyer · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.56 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 667.00 | 505.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 3.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1867.65 | 1531.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.33 | 11.69 |
| eye test v1 | 1.05 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 69.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| league points | 57.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.20 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.59 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.48 | -0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.35 | 28.06 |
| state index | 1.66 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.18 | -0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 298.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |