← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Jan 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Simon Hooper, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 46% | 42% | 2.14 | fair |
| West Ham win | 28% | 29% | 3.52 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.70 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Andy Carroll · West Ham |
| 53' | ⚽ | Callum Wilson · Bournemouth |
| 90' | ⚽ | Joshua King · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 2301.00 | 263.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1526.17 | 1572.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.52 | -16.66 |
| eye test v1 | 0.63 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.73 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 50.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.49 | 0.70 |
| league points | 27.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | 0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.28 | 28.80 |
| state index | -0.50 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 156.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |