← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 57% | 65% | 1.71 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.01 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 18% | 13% | 5.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Bernard · Everton |
| 61' | ⚽ | Kurt Zouma · Everton |
| 65' | 🟨 | Michael Keane · Everton |
| 66' | 🟨 | Kurt Zouma · Everton |
| 66' | 🟨 | André Gomes · Everton |
| 84' | 🟨 | Richarlison · Everton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Dominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 17 | Fouls | 8 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days | 257.00 | 2295.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.69 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1571.99 | 1537.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.09 | -18.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.65 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.54 |
| league points | 27.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.39 | 25.66 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 310.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |