← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Jan 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 48% | 39% | 2.05 | fair |
| West Ham win | 27% | 39% | 3.58 | value: +38% |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 46' | 🟨 | Shkodran Mustafi · Arsenal |
| 48' | ⚽ | Declan Rice · West Ham |
| 60' | 🟨 | Sead Kolašinac · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 256.00 | 256.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 3.24 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1558.68 | 1756.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.80 | -25.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.70 | 47.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| league points | 28.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 61.40 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | 1.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 28.51 | 25.95 |
| state index | -0.19 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | 1.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 8.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |