← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Jan 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paul Tierney, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 41% | 49% | 2.36 | value: +15% |
| Watford win | 29% | 24% | 3.32 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.36 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | ⚽ (og) | Craig Cathcart · Crystal Palace |
| 61' | 🟨 | Kiko Femenía · Watford |
| 65' | 🟨 | Ken Sema · Watford |
| 67' | ⚽ | Craig Cathcart · Watford |
| 74' | ⚽ | Tom Cleverley · Watford |
| 84' | 🟨 | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tom Cleverley · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Roberto Pereyra · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days |
| 498.00 |
| 376.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.11 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1543.31 | 1532.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.58 | 19.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 71.20 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| league points | 22.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.09 | 29.66 |
| state index | 0.35 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.82 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 35.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |