← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Jan 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 40% | 37% | 2.47 | fair |
| Fulham win | 30% | 18% | 3.22 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 46% | 3.27 | value: +50% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Andre Schürrle · Fulham |
| 20' | ⚽ | Jeff Hendrick · Burnley |
| 23' | ⚽ (og) | Denis Odoi · Burnley |
| 34' | 🟨 | Calum Chambers · Fulham |
| 65' | 🟨 | Cyrus Christie · Fulham |
| 72' | 🟨 | James Tarkowski · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 0 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 5 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 2294.00 | 72.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1677.31 | 1669.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.66 | -8.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.67 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.50 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| league points | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.98 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.16 | 25.87 |
| state index | 0.14 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 290.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |