← Premier League 2018-19 · Thu, Jan 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 49% | 47% | 2.00 | fair |
| Liverpool win | 26% | 27% | 3.84 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.86 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Dejan Lovren · Liverpool |
| 31' | 🟨 | Vincent Kompany · Man City |
| 38' | 🟨 | Georginio Wijnaldum · Liverpool |
| 40' | ⚽ | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 45' | 🟨 | Aymeric Laporte · Man City |
| 64' | ⚽ | Roberto Firmino · Liverpool |
| 72' | ⚽ | Leroy Sané · Man City |
| 89' | 🟨 | Bernardo Silva · Man City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Éderson · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 916.00 | 651.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 8.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.89 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1893.10 | 1872.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -48.70 | 34.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | 1.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 63.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.87 |
| league points | 47.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.00 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 61.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.35 | 2.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 10.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 18.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.52 | 1.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.80 |
| squad age | 27.57 | 26.40 |
| state index | 0.80 | 1.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.93 | 0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 50.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |