← Premier League 2018-19 · Wed, Jan 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Roger East, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves win | 42% | 41% | 2.34 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 34% | 3.17 | value: +7% |
| Crystal Palace win | 27% | 26% | 3.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Willy Boly · Wolves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Romain Saïss · Wolves |
| 54' | 🟨 | Ryan Bennett · Wolves |
| 62' | 🟨 | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
| 83' | ⚽ | Jordan Ayew · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonny Otto · Wolves |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 10 |
| 9 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days | 611.00 | 488.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 4.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1482.81 | 1527.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 54.93 | 11.15 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | -0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 69.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.81 |
| league points | 29.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 0.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.00 | -0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.22 | 27.89 |
| state index | 0.30 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.19 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 192.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |