← Premier League 2018-19 · Wed, Jan 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Chris Kavanagh, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 48% | 42% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 34% | 3.55 | value: +22% |
| Brighton win | 24% | 23% | 4.01 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 56' | ⚽ | Dale Stephens · Brighton |
| 58' | ⚽ | Shane Duffy · Brighton |
| 66' | ⚽ | Marko Arnautovic · West Ham |
| 68' | ⚽ | Marko Arnautovic · West Ham |
| 80' | 🟨 | Solly March · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 246.00 | 1493.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1561.49 | 1521.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.22 | -9.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.20 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | — |
| league points | 27.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.79 | 26.97 |
| state index | 0.01 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 74.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |