← Premier League 2018-19 · Wed, Jan 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Coote, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 38% | 40% | 2.60 | value: +3% |
| Watford win | 34% | 32% | 2.89 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.47 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Troy Deeney · Watford |
| 27' | ⚽ | Troy Deeney · Watford |
| 29' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Watford |
| 33' | 🟨 | Troy Deeney · Watford |
| 34' | ⚽ | Nathan Aké · Bournemouth |
| 37' | ⚽ | Callum Wilson · Bournemouth |
| 38' | ⚽ | Ken Sema · Watford |
| 40' | ⚽ | Ryan Fraser · Bournemouth |
| 50' | 🟨 | Étienne Capoue · Watford |
| 60' | 🟨 | Dan Gosling · Bournemouth |
| 89' | 🟨 | José Holebas · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 25 | Shots | 11 |
| 12 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 2284.00 | 366.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1539.13 | 1530.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.41 | 21.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| league points | 26.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.01 | 28.01 |
| state index | -0.74 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 142.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |