← Premier League 2018-19 · Tue, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 49% | 48% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.58 | fair |
| Leicester win | 24% | 23% | 4.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 52' | 🟨 | André Gomes · Everton |
| 58' | ⚽ | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jonny Evans · Leicester |
| 80' | 🟨 | Lucas Digne · Everton |
| 81' | 🟨 | Cenk Tosun · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 5 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days | 245.00 | 457.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.69 | 3.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1584.02 | 1572.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.01 | -0.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.75 |
| league points | 27.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | -0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.20 | 25.46 |
| state index | -0.13 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 152.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |