← Premier League 2018-19 · Tue, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 69% | 72% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 17% | 4.84 | fair |
| Cardiff win | 11% | 11% | 8.88 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 12' | ⚽ | Christian Eriksen · Tottenham |
| 26' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 53' | 🟨 | Sol Bamba · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 6 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days | 822.00 | 1645.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.26 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1411.57 | 1813.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.82 | -3.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.40 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| league points | 18.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 33.20 | 60.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 2.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -2.37 | 1.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.09 | 26.64 |
| state index | -0.33 | 1.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.08 | 1.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 217.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |