← Premier League 2018-19 · Tue, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Graham Scott, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 70% | 75% | 1.39 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 18% | 19% | 5.24 | fair |
| Fulham win | 12% | 6% | 8.13 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Granit Xhaka · Arsenal |
| 55' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Arsenal |
| 69' | ⚽ | Aboubakar Kamara · Fulham |
| 77' | 🟨 | Timothy Fosu-Mensah · Fulham |
| 79' | ⚽ | Aaron Ramsey · Arsenal |
| 83' | ⚽ | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 245.00 | 61.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.24 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1918.58 | 1674.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.32 | -8.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.50 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| league points | 38.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.47 |
| season ppg | 1.90 | 0.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.92 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.94 | 26.52 |
| state index | 0.74 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.79 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 11.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |