← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Mason, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 70% | 78% | 1.39 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 18% | 12% | 5.35 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 11% | 10% | 8.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Paul Pogba · Man United |
| 33' | ⚽ | Paul Pogba · Man United |
| 36' | 🟨 | Ashley Young · Man United |
| 45' | ⚽ | Marcus Rashford · Man United |
| 45' | ⚽ | Nathan Aké · Bournemouth |
| 51' | 🟨 | Ander Herrera · Man United |
| 72' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · Man United |
| 79' | 🟥 | Eric Bailly · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.49 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Old Trafford, Manchester |
| coach days | 29.00 | 2281.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1749.47 | 1545.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.35 | -13.71 |
| eye test v1 | 1.41 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| league points | 32.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.77 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.21 | 27.39 |
| state index | 0.95 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.53 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 304.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |