← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 55% | 54% | 1.77 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.79 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 19% | 23% | 5.19 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Marcos Alonso · Chelsea |
| 51' | ⚽ | N'Golo Kanté · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 12 |
| 0 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| coach days | 485.00 | 182.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| venue | Selhurst Park, London |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.95 | 3.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1532.95 | 1770.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.53 | 8.17 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.70 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.71 |
| league points | 19.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 87.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 62.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | 1.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.77 | 26.98 |
| state index | -0.01 | 0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | 1.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 11.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |