← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Simon Hooper, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 61% | 72% | 1.60 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 26% | 17% | 3.81 | fair |
| Cardiff win | 13% | 11% | 7.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | 🟨 | Neil Etheridge · Cardiff |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sean Morrison · Cardiff |
| 90' | ⚽ | Víctor Camarasa · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 454.00 | 819.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.68 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1588.60 | 1395.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.23 | -1.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 66.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| league points | 28.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 64.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 33.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 0.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.89 | -2.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.79 | 28.35 |
| state index | 0.19 | -0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | -1.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 190.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |