← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 47% | 51% | 2.07 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.26 | fair |
| Huddersfield win | 23% | 22% | 4.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Jean Michaël Seri · Fulham |
| 44' | 🟨 | Denis Odoi · Fulham |
| 64' | 🟨 | Cyrus Christie · Fulham |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jonathan Hogg · Huddersfield |
| 90' | ⚽ | Aleksandar Mitrović · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 58.00 | 1154.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.81 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1384.53 | 1411.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.81 | -35.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| league points | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.58 | 0.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.34 | 26.57 |
| state index | -0.86 | -1.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.04 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 263.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |