← Premier League 2018-19 · Wed, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Chris Kavanagh, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 71% | 73% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 19% | 5.38 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 11% | 8% | 9.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Christian Eriksen · Tottenham |
| 23' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 35' | ⚽ | Lucas Moura · Tottenham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jefferson Lerma · Bournemouth |
| 61' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 70' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 76' | 🟨 | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 87' | 🟨 | Harry Winks · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 4 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Wembley Stadium |
| coach days | 1639.00 | 2277.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1836.10 | 1550.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.03 | -11.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | -1.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| league points | 42.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.82 | -0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 26.61 | 26.73 |
| state index | 1.21 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.62 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 156.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |