← Premier League 2018-19 · Wed, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 77% | 83% | 1.27 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 16% | 12% | 6.13 | fair |
| Huddersfield win | 7% | 5% | 13.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Elias Kachunga · Huddersfield |
| 28' | ⚽ | Nemanja Matić · Man United |
| 30' | 🟨 | Fred · Man United |
| 64' | ⚽ | Paul Pogba · Man United |
| 78' | ⚽ | Paul Pogba · Man United |
| 88' | ⚽ | Zanka · Huddersfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.49 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 25.00 | 1151.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1933.51 | 1594.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.36 | -40.17 |
| eye test v1 | 1.02 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.61 |
| league points | 29.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 0.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.74 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.60 | 25.74 |
| state index | 1.21 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.59 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 40.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |