← Premier League 2018-19 · Wed, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves win | 36% | 31% | 2.76 | fair |
| Fulham win | 33% | 26% | 2.96 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 43% | 3.15 | value: +36% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | 🟨 | Calum Chambers · Fulham |
| 44' | 🟨 | Romain Saïss · Wolves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Cyrus Christie · Fulham |
| 74' | ⚽ | Ryan Sessegnon · Fulham |
| 85' | ⚽ | Romain Saïss · Wolves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 0 |
| 9 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 55.00 | 604.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1384.21 | 1455.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.26 | 35.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| league points | 10.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.47 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.56 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.63 | -0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.79 | 26.78 |
| state index | -0.96 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.79 | -0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 180.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |