← Premier League 2018-19 · Wed, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Probert, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 59% | 63% | 1.66 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.79 | fair |
| Cardiff win | 15% | 14% | 6.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Sol Bamba · Cardiff |
| 45' | 🟨 | Junior Hoilett · Cardiff |
| 77' | 🟨 | Víctor Camarasa · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 31 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 481.00 | 816.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.22 | 2.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1538.32 | 1389.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.79 | 2.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 71.30 | 65.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.63 |
| league points | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 63.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 35.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | -2.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.43 | 27.87 |
| state index | 0.21 | -0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | -2.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 216.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |