← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 41% | 43% | 2.39 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.26 | value: +5% |
| Fulham win | 29% | 25% | 3.41 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 84' | 🟨 | Aboubakar Kamara · Fulham |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jean Michaël Seri · Fulham |
| 89' | 🟨 | Kenedy · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 4 |
| 0 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | St James' Park |
| coach days | 1026.00 | 51.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1505.97 | 1379.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.23 | 0.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| league points | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.47 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 0.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.13 | -0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.31 | 26.36 |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.21 | -1.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 400.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |