← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 83% | 89% | 1.17 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 12% | 8% | 7.90 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 5% | 3% | 19.72 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | İlkay Gündoğan · Man City |
| 33' | ⚽ | Jeffrey Schlupp · Crystal Palace |
| 35' | ⚽ | Andros Townsend · Crystal Palace |
| 45' | 🟨 | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 51' | ⚽ (pen) | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
| 75' | 🟨 | Patrick van Aanholt · Crystal Palace |
| 80' | 🟨 | James McArthur · Crystal Palace |
| 85' | ⚽ | Kevin De Bruyne · Man City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vicente Guaita · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 13 | Corners | 0 |
| 7 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 904.00 | 477.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.56 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1924.69 | 1519.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.59 | 9.20 |
| eye test v1 | 0.87 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 68.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.76 |
| league points | 44.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.60 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.59 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.48 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.01 | 27.57 |
| state index | 1.51 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.92 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 272.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |