← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Stuart Attwell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 34% | 30% | 2.85 | fair |
| Huddersfield win | 34% | 34% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 36% | 3.10 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Chris Löwe · Huddersfield |
| 15' | ⚽ | Nathan Redmond · Southampton |
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | Danny Ings · Southampton |
| 52' | 🟨 | Yan Valery · Southampton |
| 58' | ⚽ | Philip Billing · Huddersfield |
| 63' | 🟨 | Zanka · Huddersfield |
| 71' | ⚽ | Michael Obafemi · Southampton |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jack Stephens · Southampton |
| 86' | 🟨 | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huddersfield | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | John Smith's Stadium |
| coach days | 1147.00 | 21.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.28 | 1.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1608.44 | 1681.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.21 | 1.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | 0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| league points | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.59 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.59 | 25.69 |
| state index | -0.13 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 306.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |