← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 63% | 55% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 29% | 4.32 | value: +23% |
| Cardiff win | 14% | 17% | 6.90 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Marcus Rashford · Man United |
| 29' | ⚽ | Ander Herrera · Man United |
| 35' | 🟨 | Luke Shaw · Man United |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Víctor Camarasa · Cardiff |
| 41' | ⚽ | Anthony Martial · Man United |
| 57' | ⚽ (pen) | Jesse Lingard · Man United |
| 58' | 🟨 | Aron Gunnarsson · Cardiff |
| 79' | 🟨 | Greg Cunningham · Cardiff |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jesse Lingard · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days | 812.00 | 21.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 3.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1396.08 | 1740.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.66 | -19.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.30 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| league points | 14.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.20 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -2.59 | 0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 28.32 | 27.00 |
| state index | -0.32 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.96 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 229.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |