← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 48% | 45% | 2.03 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.50 | value: +9% |
| Brighton win | 24% | 24% | 4.14 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | David Brooks · Bournemouth |
| 31' | 🟨 | Jefferson Lerma · Bournemouth |
| 43' | 🟨 | David Brooks · Bournemouth |
| 62' | 🟨 | Lewis Dunk · Brighton |
| 73' | 🟨 | Lewis Dunk · Brighton |
| 73' | 🟥 | Lewis Dunk · Brighton |
| 77' | ⚽ | David Brooks · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 2273.00 | 1482.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1538.69 | 1516.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.40 | 8.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.94 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| league points | 23.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.67 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.09 | 27.51 |
| state index | -0.79 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 124.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |