← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Simon Hooper, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves win | 48% | 61% | 2.02 | value: +23% |
| Draw | 28% | 20% | 3.45 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 23% | 20% | 4.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Raúl Jiménez · Wolves |
| 34' | 🟨 | Steve Cook · Bournemouth |
| 39' | 🟨 | Jefferson Lerma · Bournemouth |
| 66' | 🟨 | Hélder Costa · Wolves |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ivan Cavaleiro · Wolves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days | 593.00 | 2266.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1441.74 | 1556.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.36 | -22.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | -0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.66 |
| league points | 22.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.94 | -0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 25.40 | 26.56 |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.03 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 207.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |