← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Andy Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 58% | 66% | 1.68 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.90 | fair |
| Cardiff win | 17% | 13% | 5.86 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Gerard Deulofeu · Watford |
| 52' | ⚽ | José Holebas · Watford |
| 68' | ⚽ | Domingos Quina · Watford |
| 80' | ⚽ | Junior Hoilett · Cardiff |
| 82' | ⚽ | Bobby Decordova-Reid · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 7 | Fouls | 5 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 348.00 | 805.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1512.68 | 1401.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.54 | 22.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 69.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| league points | 21.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 63.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | -1.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.94 | 28.00 |
| state index | -0.77 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | -1.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 194.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |