← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield win | 37% | 38% | 2.64 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 27% | 3.07 | fair |
| Newcastle win | 31% | 36% | 3.19 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Jamaal Lascelles · Newcastle |
| 55' | ⚽ | Salomón Rondón · Newcastle |
| 72' | 🟨 | Jonathan Hogg · Huddersfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 5 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huddersfield | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | John Smith's Stadium |
| coach days | 1140.00 | 1019.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1439.86 | 1495.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.49 | -6.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| league points | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 0.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | -0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.88 | 28.17 |
| state index | -0.47 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | -1.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| travel km | — | 147.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |