← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 41% | 29% | 2.40 | fair |
| Fulham win | 31% | 33% | 3.12 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 28% | 38% | 3.56 | value: +34% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Robert Snodgrass · West Ham |
| 29' | ⚽ | Michail Antonio · West Ham |
| 39' | 🟨 | Mark Noble · West Ham |
| 41' | 🟨 | Jean Michaël Seri · Fulham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stefan Johansen · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.56 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 44.00 | 228.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 3.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1388.92 | 1579.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.19 | 25.80 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.67 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.30 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| league points | 9.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.20 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.47 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.56 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.49 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 25.76 | 28.11 |
| state index | -0.79 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.66 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 17.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |