← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 36% | 37% | 2.73 | fair |
| Leicester win | 33% | 27% | 2.94 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 36% | 3.20 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
| 45' | 🟨 | James McArthur · Crystal Palace |
| 61' | 🟨 | Ricardo Pereira · Leicester |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vicente Guaita · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 470.00 | 440.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 3.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1509.74 | 1565.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.69 | -3.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 70.00 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.51 | 0.70 |
| league points | 12.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | -0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.53 | 26.61 |
| state index | -0.19 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 153.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |