← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves win | 35% | 32% | 2.83 | fair |
| Newcastle win | 33% | 34% | 2.97 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 34% | 3.05 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Diogo Jota · Wolves |
| 18' | 🟨 | Sung-Yueng Ki · Newcastle |
| 23' | ⚽ | Ayoze Pérez · Newcastle |
| 33' | 🟨 | Matt Doherty · Wolves |
| 57' | 🟥 | DeAndre Yedlin · Newcastle |
| 65' | 🟨 | Hélder Costa · Wolves |
| 72' | 🟨 | Conor Coady · Wolves |
| 73' | 🟨 | Diogo Jota · Wolves |
| 80' | 🟨 | Ryan Bennett · Wolves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ciaran Clark · Newcastle |
| 90' | ⚽ | Matt Doherty · Wolves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | St James' Park |
| coach days | 1013.00 | 587.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1509.72 | 1427.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.53 | -4.26 |
| eye test v1 | 0.00 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| league points | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.03 | -0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.57 | 26.36 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.41 | -1.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 267.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |