← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Dec 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 40% | 42% | 2.44 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.28 | value: +5% |
| Cardiff win | 30% | 26% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Sean Morrison · Cardiff |
| 28' | 🟨 | Yan Valery · Southampton |
| 66' | 🟨 | Joe Bennett · Cardiff |
| 74' | 🟨 | Oriol Romeu · Southampton |
| 74' | ⚽ | Callum Paterson · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days | 798.00 | 7.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.96 | 1.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1390.75 | 1477.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.84 | -11.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | 0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.20 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.55 |
| league points | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.79 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 28.17 | 26.80 |
| state index | -0.36 | -1.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.29 | -1.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| travel km | — | 141.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |